By Adrian Kelly
In our fast-paced world, we often overlook a fundamental truth: evidence of change, disruption or a threat that should, in hindsight, have spurred us to mobilize and react proportionately. Such a mobilization can be commonly stifled by a failure to apprehend fully, what is before our eyes.
History has repeatedly shown that failure to react appropriately can often lead to our downfall. Whether it be the collapse of ancient civilizations or modern corporations, the lessons of foresight—or the lack thereof—are all too clear.
The Inca Empire: A Sudden Collapse
The year is 1532, around 170 Spanish conquistadors have landed on the shores of the vast Inca Empire, in South America then one of the most formidable civilizations in the world. Their empire numbered some 12 million in population and at its height, stretched over modern-day Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and parts of Chile and Argentina. The Incas had built remarkable infrastructure, controlled agriculture, and possessed a sophisticated societal structure. They appeared invincible. Yet, within a mere twelve months, this mighty empire crumbled into dust.
How could this happen? The Incas did not react to the arrival of the Spanish with the seriousness the situation demanded. The initial encounter with Francisco Pizarro and his men may have seemed insignificant—a small group of foreign adventurers compared to the Inca army’s vast numbers. However, by failing to fully comprehend the ramifications of this foreign presence and not taking immediate action, the Incas sealed their fate. What followed was a chain of events—disease, betrayal, and superior European weaponry—that decimated their empire.
At its core, the Inca collapse can be seen as a failure to assess a new threat with fresh eyes. Their worldview was grounded in past experiences, unable to account for the radical change they faced. They saw the Spanish not through the lens of reality, but through the prism of their past successes. They did not appreciate the savagery of the conquistadors, their ruthless nature and lack of morals. Their mistake could simply be summed up as approaching a new problem with a blinkered bias towards how things had been done for generations, not with the time and energy it takes to assess each new challenge on its own merits. A condition that continues to plague decision-makers today.
Blockbuster: A Modern Parallel
Fast forward nearly 500 years, and a similar story played out in a vastly different setting: a boardroom in 1999, where Blockbuster, the behemoth of video rentals, had the chance to acquire a small, upstart company called Netflix. At the time, Blockbuster was the undisputed king of home entertainment, with thousands of stores worldwide and an established customer base of over 60 million. Netflix, by contrast, was a fledgling company with around 100 employees and some distribution warehouses to support its DVD mail ordering business.
Blockbuster’s leadership dismissed Netflix’s vision of the future and offers of sale or partnership. They couldn’t foresee a world in which physical stores became obsolete, nor did they recognize the seismic shift towards digital streaming that was just around the corner. Like the Incas, Blockbuster failed to assess the facts in front of them and instead remained wedded to their outdated business model. The end result? By 2010, Blockbuster had filed for bankruptcy, while Netflix became one of the world’s largest entertainment platforms.
Such failures can be as a result of status quo bias and cultural cognition, where people and organizations tend to prefer the familiar, even when faced with evidence that suggests change is necessary. We often see the world through the lens of our past experiences, blinding us to the new realities taking shape around us. Our brains love auto-polite and the more we can simply repeat what has worked in the past the less brain energy we have to use. The Blockbuster leadership couldn't—or wouldn’t—adapt to a new way of doing things, much like the Inca rulers who failed to grasp the gravity of their situation in 1532.
The Culture of Expectation
Cultural cognition theory proposes to explain how social and psychological mechanisms, such as identity-protective cognition, lead individuals to form beliefs about risk. These mechanisms cause people to process information in ways that support their cultural commitments. For example, individuals tend to accept or dismiss new facts and findings based on whether those findings support their group's worldview[1].
Both of these stories illustrate a key issue: the culture of expectation. As humans, we are hardwired to expect the future to resemble the past in some way or assess new information through the distorted lens of cultural beliefs, in which we are already heavily invested. As such, we can often overlook new facts or developments, refusing to see what is truly in front of us because it doesn’t align with our expectations.
In both the Inca Empire and Blockbuster, the decision-makers were operating on a set of assumptions that no longer applied. For the Incas, their past military dominance over neighboring tribes blinded them to the existential threat posed by a technologically superior foreign force. For Blockbuster, the assumption, among other things[2], that people would always prefer physical rentals over digital streaming led to their downfall.
This culture of expectation creates a dangerous blind spot, one that leads to complacency and, ultimately, failure. Reacting to acute events, like the arrival of Spanish ships or a digital disruptor, requires not only clear thinking but also the ability to let go of outdated ways of seeing the world. This means not only being appropriately reactive but also pro-active.
Balancing Short-Term Reaction with Long-Term Thinking
A perfect example of this is the 10,000-Year Clock, also known as the Clock of the Long Now. This visionary project is being built inside a mountain in Texas. The clock is designed to tick once per year. Every 10 years, it chimes, and it will gong once every 1,000 years. Why? … you might ask. It is a symbolic reminder of the importance of thinking far beyond our lifetimes. To cast our minds to the fact that we are custodians of something precious, on behalf of future generations.
The Clock of the Long Now serves as a powerful reminder that we must balance short-term reactions with proactive long term planning. It’s not enough to only see the crisis at hand or react radically to what’s before us. We must also build for the future, ensuring that the decisions we make today lay the foundation for future generations.
Short-term thinking, while often necessary, can lead to decisions that prioritize immediate survival over long-term growth. The failure to invest in long-term planning however leaves us vulnerable to future crises. We need to look ahead not just to avoid failure, but to create lasting success.
So, what can all this teach us?
At minimum these lessons warn of the vigilance necessary to sustain anything worth preserving. They clearly illustrate that we should take the time to assess new facts and events in a way that puts aside the bias of our expectations and instead allows us to assess new challenges on their own merits. If there were only another example we could point to. One that is supported by facts and figures. An example of a modern threat to our way of life. An assessment of which could easily be stifled by bias, echo chambers and a lazy expectation of more of what has gone before. An example of … I don’t know … a potential environmental crisis and global warming underpinned by scientific study? If we had such an example, what do you think the Inca’s would advise us to do?
References
[1] Kahan, Dan M. "Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk." Handbook of Risk Theory, edited by S. Roeser, forthcoming. Harvard Law School Program on Risk Regulation Research Paper No. 08-20; Yale Law School, Public Law Working Paper No. 222. April 21, 2008. Revised April 16, 2013. Posted April 23, 2008.
[2] Short / medium term profits from ‘late return’ fees on movies, commitments on lease and real estate agreements of course also had their part to play
By Adrian Kelly, author of The Success Complex, is a recognized sports and performance coach, author, award-winning lawyer, and a sought-after guest speaker on subjects ranging from motivation, high performance, life direction, sustainable success, and positive psychology. He has lectured and been an external examiner at the Law Society of Ireland, where he is currently undertaking a master’s degree in psychology.
